Kenneth Rogoff: Extreme weather and global growth

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Until recently, the usual thinking among macroeconomists has been that short-term weather fluctuations don't matter much for economic activity. Construction hiring may be stronger than usual in a March when the weather is unseasonably mild, but there will be payback in April and May. If heavy rains discourage people from shopping in August, they will just spend more in September.

But recent economic research, bolstered by an exceptionally strong El Niño - a complex global climactic event marked by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean water off the coast of Ecuador and Peru - has prompted a rethink of this view.

Extreme weather certainly throws a ringer into key short-term macroeconomic statistics. It can add or subtract 100,000 jobs to monthly US employment, the single most-watch